As Hurricane Hunters brave treacherous skies to fly into tropical systems, their data helps meteorologists to create the best forecasts. Now, that data has also helped researchers discover more long term information that can help forecasting in the future too. 

Recently, researchers utilized over 25 years of radar scans from Hurricane Hunters to study hurricanes. They looked at data specifically regarding the vertical alignment of the vortex which is a sign of rapid intensification. The radar data allowed scientists to study the storm structure, environmental conditions and rainfall patterns to analyze what is needed for the tropical system to intensify. 

Knowing when a system will go from being misaligned to vertically aligned has been difficult to forecast. They started by pinpointing weak systems then focused on what happened within the next day. They then compared what happened to storms that became vertically aligned to storms that kept the same alignment. Researchers were able to analyze the nearly three decades of data to pinpoint four components that are critical for tropical cyclones to become vertically aligned. These include: a compact, strong circulation near the sea surface; initial tilt that’s left-leaning from the environmental vertical wind shear; stronger upward motion with heavy rain and warm water with plenty of moisture. 

By making these connections, meteorologists can now look for these components to help forecast rapid intensification in tropical systems.